My interest was piqued by the chart below. Sometimes having the data is really helpful and interesting as well as, on this occasion, re-assuring too. It is possible, that like me, we are sometimes overly fixated on ideas that only reflect our own individual perspective or outlook and typically we can be UK or Europe or US centric. We are all likely to be affected by the potential interruption to the movement of Oil from the Middle East to the rest of the globe but interestingly we are not the only ones!
CRUDE OIL VOLUMES PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ – BY COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN & DESTINATION
With the ongoing conflict in the Middle East many of us are likely wondering what is the future for Oil prices as there is always a potential impact on stock markets. I have written about Oil before and I remain fascinated by global trends as there are some interesting but competing energy narratives – I am not sure which one will win or even if any one narrative will win. My hope is that technology and human beings will win and energy will become more abundant and cheaper as we figure out various problems. I believe that we can, somewhat, rely on the human obsession with progress and invention and hopefully that leads to making things better and not worse for us all.
NET ZERO?
In the West and especially Europe and the UK we are headed towards Net Zero. This aim has shifted the cost of energy significantly higher and it is likely to remain the same until some very big problems are solved over energy storage which will undoubtedly improve, over the reliability and lower the price of cleaner energies (the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine – especially at night). Currently, the UK has one of the highest prices for business energy in the industralised world. The US, by contrast is self-sufficient and much cheaper. (There is a lot more detail to share – maybe another time).
Maybe the European push for new technology will eventually yield a premium. The hope is that we will make significant technological advances but some of the Green Tech that we will undoubtedly adopt already comes from abroad and the expertise is also foreign and the money will end up outside the UK.
GLOBAL WIND TURBINE MARKET SHARE
China is clearly the largest producer of ‘stuff’ including Wind Turbines but interesting to see that the UK doesn’t figure at all on the list of top producers. It isn’t the full picture of course but interesting to note.
GENERATION MIX
I think our Net Zero goal will come at a significant cost – unless something changes. We will have to wait and see what that cost is over the next decade or so but we already have a mix of technologies that contribute to UK energy use.
CHINA, THE DEVELOPING WORLD & NET ZERO?
It is also interesting to see how much the developing world relies on technology that we no longer use. Here is some data about Coal powered power stations. China will build about 289 this year alone! I guess many of us thought that this was being phased out worldwide – it appears not.
China’s NEW Coal Fired energy capacity (173.4GW) alone will outstrip the UK’s total power network at just 110GW.
ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY – CHINA VS UK (2025)
GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE
We are still very reliant on Fossil Fuels and the need for Oil and Gas is unlikely to abate. Even if we were to power cars on Electricity alone (we cannot for all transportation, shipping, planes, and large freight of all kinds). There are many other reasons why Oil and Gas would continue to be necessary especially in industrial processes such as the production of plastics, lubricants, fertilisers, detergents, etc. (it’s quite a long list).
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