NEWS
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply transits here each day. Commercial traffic has been severely disrupted since late February. Iran maintains a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil transits during peacetime. As long as that remains the status quo, analysts expect oil and stock markets to experience continued heightened volatility.
Following the weekend escalation involving US – Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s subsequent response, markets have – so far – reacted in a relatively orderly way. The immediate transmission mechanism is energy, because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas flows.
Artificial Intelligence has moved from novelty to necessity in what feels like months. Markets have reacted accordingly. Some technology shares have surged on the promise of AI, while others have fallen sharply on fears that AI could undermine existing business models. Like many investors, I’ve been trying to get my head around what is actually happening — and why the stakes suddenly feel so high.
Financial markets were primed for sharp, immediate tax rises. Commentators warned of fiscal tightening. Yet when the Chancellor delivered the measures, the initial reaction was muted. Markets barely moved. The plaster came off—and it didn’t hurt.
In the weeks leading up to the UK Budget, the industry has struggled to read the signs from the Treasury as to what was most likely to happen in the Autumn Statement and what new taxes were to be introduced – we just knew that tax would rise.
If you watch or read the news at the moment, it’s easy to think the world is falling apart. Political tensions, elections, and talk of global conflict seem to dominate every headline. It can all feel a bit bleak – and when you’re also hearing that some professional investors are ‘turning cautious,’ it’s natural to wonder whether it’s time to be worried. Yet, strangely, the investment markets don’t appear to agree with the headlines.
We are sometimes fixated on ideas that only reflect our own individual perspective and typically we can be UK or Europe or US centric. We are all likely to be affected by the potential interruption to the movement of Oil from the Middle East to the rest of the globe but interestingly we are not the only ones!
On 13 June 2025, Israel launched a pre-emptive military strike on Iran, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion”. Israel’s reasoning for these latest strikes centred on preventing Iran from achieving nuclear weapon capability, which Israel claimed was only days away.
Tariffs is a hot topic at the moment and may remain so for some time. The big question is what will the effects of tariffs be…inflation, retaliation, volatility, job losses and disinflation.
As investors we do need to seek out opportunities when the exuberance or caution of markets is exaggerated. It is tough to make the right call consistently but at times there are opportunities that in hindsight were ‘obvious’ but at the time seem to present too much risk to commit the capital.
The end of the financial year is nearly upon us, and it’s time to get in quick and make the most of exemptions before April is upon us. But that’s not all that should be on your financial spring cleaning list.
At this moment in time, I feel that the financial indicators for potential profits in the year ahead are positive and many fund managers share this view. We will see (of course) but we are also mindful of a host of new risks but also new opportunities.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply transits here each day. Commercial traffic has been severely disrupted since late February. Iran maintains a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil transits during peacetime. As long as that remains the status quo, analysts expect oil and stock markets to experience continued heightened volatility.
Following the weekend escalation involving US – Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s subsequent response, markets have – so far – reacted in a relatively orderly way. The immediate transmission mechanism is energy, because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas flows.
Artificial Intelligence has moved from novelty to necessity in what feels like months. Markets have reacted accordingly. Some technology shares have surged on the promise of AI, while others have fallen sharply on fears that AI could undermine existing business models. Like many investors, I’ve been trying to get my head around what is actually happening — and why the stakes suddenly feel so high.
Financial markets were primed for sharp, immediate tax rises. Commentators warned of fiscal tightening. Yet when the Chancellor delivered the measures, the initial reaction was muted. Markets barely moved. The plaster came off—and it didn’t hurt.