NEWS
Following the weekend escalation involving US – Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s subsequent response, markets have – so far – reacted in a relatively orderly way. The immediate transmission mechanism is energy, because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas flows.
Artificial Intelligence has moved from novelty to necessity in what feels like months. Markets have reacted accordingly. Some technology shares have surged on the promise of AI, while others have fallen sharply on fears that AI could undermine existing business models. Like many investors, I’ve been trying to get my head around what is actually happening — and why the stakes suddenly feel so high.
Financial markets were primed for sharp, immediate tax rises. Commentators warned of fiscal tightening. Yet when the Chancellor delivered the measures, the initial reaction was muted. Markets barely moved. The plaster came off—and it didn’t hurt.
In the weeks leading up to the UK Budget, the industry has struggled to read the signs from the Treasury as to what was most likely to happen in the Autumn Statement and what new taxes were to be introduced – we just knew that tax would rise.
If you watch or read the news at the moment, it’s easy to think the world is falling apart. Political tensions, elections, and talk of global conflict seem to dominate every headline. It can all feel a bit bleak – and when you’re also hearing that some professional investors are ‘turning cautious,’ it’s natural to wonder whether it’s time to be worried. Yet, strangely, the investment markets don’t appear to agree with the headlines.
Plenty of speculation about the taxes that the Government might introduce – and there is lots of choice but let’s examine the potential for a change to the tax free cash sum that clients normally access on retirement.
With a yawning £41 billion hole opening up in Britain’s books, this autumn’s Budget is shaping up to be less about giveaways and more about plug holes.
We are sometimes fixated on ideas that only reflect our own individual perspective and typically we can be UK or Europe or US centric. We are all likely to be affected by the potential interruption to the movement of Oil from the Middle East to the rest of the globe but interestingly we are not the only ones!
On 13 June 2025, Israel launched a pre-emptive military strike on Iran, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion”. Israel’s reasoning for these latest strikes centred on preventing Iran from achieving nuclear weapon capability, which Israel claimed was only days away.
Tariffs is a hot topic at the moment and may remain so for some time. The big question is what will the effects of tariffs be…inflation, retaliation, volatility, job losses and disinflation.
Equity markets rise over-time but they do not do so in a straight line. Volatility – although difficult to stomach at the time – is par for the course. According to Duncan Lamont, head of strategic research at Schroders, the stock market tends to fall by 20% once every four years and by 10% at some point during most years.
President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs that will reshape trade relations with the United States. The new tariff regime is more severe than expected, and extraordinary both in terms of scale and how they were calculated.
Following the weekend escalation involving US – Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s subsequent response, markets have – so far – reacted in a relatively orderly way. The immediate transmission mechanism is energy, because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas flows.
Artificial Intelligence has moved from novelty to necessity in what feels like months. Markets have reacted accordingly. Some technology shares have surged on the promise of AI, while others have fallen sharply on fears that AI could undermine existing business models. Like many investors, I’ve been trying to get my head around what is actually happening — and why the stakes suddenly feel so high.
Financial markets were primed for sharp, immediate tax rises. Commentators warned of fiscal tightening. Yet when the Chancellor delivered the measures, the initial reaction was muted. Markets barely moved. The plaster came off—and it didn’t hurt.
In the weeks leading up to the UK Budget, the industry has struggled to read the signs from the Treasury as to what was most likely to happen in the Autumn Statement and what new taxes were to be introduced – we just knew that tax would rise.